There’s is still much enthusiasm about the perspectives and the growths of OA to scholarly research, especially if development leaps like PlosOne and ‘Scientific Reports’ occur. But, can we expect a further steady or rapid growth?
Richard Poynders has written an entry in his Blog, where he highlights the difficulty to be precise about future OA numbers and to make accurate predictions about it’s growth. He assumes that there is a key question, which is: ‘Is Gold OA on its own able to accelerate the growth of OA to the degree that the OA movement would wish?’ Poynders states that this is crucial, because ‘if OA advocates knew exactly what was happening, and why, they would be able to put their main effort into those activities most likely to achieve their goal.’
Sounds a bit trivial, but might explain the somewhat disoriented search movement in assessing the potentials of OA.